A Three-World Model of Political Communication: Public Opinion, Elite Opinion and Public Policy in Taiwan, 1996-2000

Abstract

To what extent have the policy choices of the Taiwan government been consistent with the opinions of the public and the elite? Using the results of 549 policy opinion surveys, public opinion was compared with actual policy decisions on 113 issues from 1996 through 2000. Public policy decisions were consistent with the preferences of the majority of the public on 48 percent of the cases. As for the comparison between elite opinion and public policy, this research collected data from 189 policy opinion surveys on 87 issues, again from 1996 through 2000. Public policy decisions were consistent with the preferences of the majority of the elite on 54 percent of the cases. By combining these data, this research identified 41 issues on which both public and elite opinion surveys have been conducted and found: (1) government decisions were consistent with the preferences of the majority of both the public and elite on 20 cases (about 49 percent); (2) government decisions on 6 cases (about 15 percent) were consistent with the preferences of the majority of the public but not consistent with those of the majority of the elite; (3) government decisions on 5 cases (about 12 percent) were consistent with the preferences of the majority of the elite but not consistent with the majority of public opinion; (4) government decisions on 10 cases (about 24 percent) were inconsistent with the preferences of the majority of both the elite and of the public. Since government decisions were made by the leadership echelons, this paper develops a three-world model to describe and explain policy formulation and political communication in Taiwan: the public, the elite, and the leadership echelons together paint a complicated picture of preference consistency on various policy issues.