A three‐year follow‐up study of the psychosocial predictors of delayed and unresolved post‐traumatic stress disorder in Taiwan Chi‐Chi earthquake survivors

Abstract

To predict the longitudinal course of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in survivors three years following a catastrophic earthquake using multivariate data presented six months after the earthquake. Trained assistants and psychiatrists used the Disaster-related Psychological Screening Test (DRPST) to interview earthquake survivors 16 years and older and to assess current and incidental psychopathology. A total of 1756 respondents were surveyed over the three-year follow-up period. A total of 38 (9.1%) of the original 418 PTSD subjects and 40 of the original 1338 (3.0%) non-PTSD subjects were identified as having PTSD at the 3-year post-earthquake follow up. Younger age, significant financial loss, and memory/attention impairment were predictive factors of unresolved PTSD and delayed PTSD. The longitudinal course of PTSD three years after the earthquake could be predicted as early as six months after the earthquake on the basis of demographic data, PTSD-related factors, and putative factors for PTSD.