A three-stage multi-objective heterogeneous integrated model with decomposition-reconstruction mechanism and adaptive segmentation error correction method for ship motion multi-step prediction

Abstract

Reliable and accurate ship motion prediction is essential for ship navigation at sea and marine operations. Although previous studies have yielded rich results in the field of ship motion prediction, most of them have ignored the importance of the dynamic characteristics of ship motion for constructing forecasting models. Besides, the limitations of the single model and the autocorrelation characteristics of the residual series are also unfavorable factors that hinder the forecasting performance. To fill these gaps, a multi-objective heterogeneous integration model based on decomposition-reconstruction mechanism and adaptive segmentation error correction method is proposed in this paper for ship motion multi-step prediction. Specifically, the proposed model is divided into three stages, which are decomposition-reconstruction mechanism, multi-objective heterogeneous integration model and adaptive segmentation error correction method. The effectiveness of the proposed model is verified using four sets of real ship motion data collected from two sites in the South China Sea. The evaluation results show that the proposed model can effectively improve the prediction performance and outperforms other traditional models and state-of-the-art models in the field of ship motion prediction. Prospectively, the model proposed in this study can be used as an effective aid to ship warning systems and has the potential for practical application in ship marine operations.