A three-stage hybrid model for the regional assessment, spatial pattern analysis and source apportionment of the land resources comprehensive supporting capacity in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration

Abstract

The Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is an important region in China, but the limited space supports a large scale and high intensity of economic and social activities. To objectively evaluate the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration land resources comprehensive supporting capacity (LRCSC), the spatial distribution pattern and the factors affecting the comprehensive supporting capacity’s spatial heterogeneity, this study established a three-stage hybrid model, and the model included regional assessment, spatial pattern analysis and source apportionment to quantitatively evaluate the integrated space based on the comprehensive supporting capacity for regional land resources. First, based on the data of 26 cities in the 2016 Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and the data of 25 indicators, we calculated the LRCSC index for each city. Then, we visualized the supporting capacity based on the space distribution and used the Pearson correlation coefficient method to determine the factors influencing the comprehensive supporting capacity’s spatial heterogeneity. Finally, we used the factor analysis method to further identify the key factors affecting LRCSC. The results show that (1) the horizontal spatial difference of the LRCSC in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is large, the overall change in the LRCSC index shows the spatial differentiation feature of “gradually decreasing from the centre to the surrounding area”, and the local spatial distribution shows the distribution feature of point dispersion and zonal aggregation. (2) The degree of correlation between the LRCSC and social development element is the strongest in the element layer and the correlation coefficient between them is 0.548803. Among them, social development is positively correlated with economic technology. (3) The population density and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) are two important factors affecting the spatial differences in LRCSC in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations.