A Three-Dimensional Evaluation Model of National Fragility Based on Dynamic Weighting

Abstract

Nowadays, climate change has become an increasingly important factor that influences the national development. In this paper, we propose the three-dimensional model based on dynamic weighting to measure national fragility, while taking into account a series of climatic factors like temperature, rainfall et al. Our model includes 20 indicators which can be divided into economic factors, social factors and environmental factors. We first divided all indicators into cost-type, benefit-type and moderate indicators, and normalized them based on different types of indicators. Then, combining modified entropy weight method and AHP, the weights of 20 indicators and three factors in the evaluation model are defined. In the three-dimensional evaluation model, we use the length of the evaluation curve to evaluate the national fragility and measure the balance of the three factors with the angle between the curve and the diagonal of the model. Moreover, since countries at different stages of development have different development focuses, we have developed an "S-type" function to dynamically measure the different emphasis on the degree of national fragility and the balance of the three evaluation factors. Then, we calculate the comprehensive fragility index by giving different weights for the degree of national fragility and the balance of the three factors. Finally, we use two different countries which are China and Sudan to verify the rationality of the model. The results show that our model can reasonably measure the fragility of countries in different development levels, which also proves its adaptability and practicability.