Abstract
This chapter explains the book's theory and identifies the two independent variables that drive the choice of anticipatory strategies: the petroleum deficit and the threat to oil imports. When combined, these two independent variables determine the state's overall coercive vulnerability. The chapter also discusses how the military value of oil is a necessary condition to explain great power behavior. The economic value of oil, while important, is not sufficient to explain why states pursue anticipatory strategies. The chapter then looks at the three categories of anticipatory strategy from which states select: self-sufficiency, indirect control, and direct control. Ultimately, a state will choose the lowest cost anticipatory strategy capable of fulfilling its oil security needs, given its degree of vulnerability. Finally, the chapter considers whether oil is “different” from other resources.
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