A Theory of Encirclement and Major War

Abstract

This chapter lays out a theory that links encirclement to major war, defining key variables that include the invasion ability of the surrounding great power, major war, and great-power status. The chapter analyzes the theory that can provoke the outbreak of major war and identifies the main competing explanations on their origins. Major wars have their foundations in the encirclement of one great power and unfold through a three-step process, the causal mechanism of which is the result of changes in the invasion ability of the immediate rival. The chapter examines how encirclement lies at the origins of major wars through the unfolding of three steps: double security dilemma, war initiation, and war contagion. It mentions the rival-based system of alliances that entwines the survival of all the members of each bloc and ties the separate dyadic antagonisms of immediate rivals in one unified zero-sum game.