A Theory of Collective Induction

Abstract

Collective induction is the cooperative search for descriptive, predictive, and explanatory generalizations, rules, and principles. We present a social combination theory of collective induction in the form of eight postulates. The theory proposes that collective induction entails an orderly social combination process of resolution of disagreement among group members by voting, turntaking, demonstration, and formation of emergent hypotheses, rather than any of these four processes alone. Three predictions were derived from the theory and supported for four-person groups on rule induction problems. First, the theory predicted the obtained group hypotheses better than each of the other four processes alone. Second, if a correct hypothesis was proposed by at least one group member on some trial there was a high probability (.82) of a correct final group hypothesis. Third, if a correct hypothesis was not proposed by at least one group member on some trial there was a very high probability (.98) of an incorrect final group hypothesis. Discussion considers support for the theory, cognition as collaboration, and boundary conditions.