A theoretical Markov chain model for evaluating correctional methods applied to people with criminal tendencies.

Abstract

In this paper a stochastic method is applied in the study of the long time effect of confinement in a correctional institution on the behaviour of a person with criminal tendencies. The approach used is Markov chain, which uses past history to predict the state of a system in the future. A model is developed for comparing the effect of different correctional practices on people with criminal tendencies. The statistics for this comparison is the number of people whose criminal tendencies are completely destroyed at the end of their confinement. The model so developed is applied to a simulated data on deviants of the same criminal offence. The number of them who permanently recover and those who permanently remain unrecovered were obtained. Global Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences Volume , No 1 January (2001) pp. 179-188 KEY WORDS: Markov Chain, Evaluating, Correctional Methods, Criminal Tendencies.