Abstract

Summary: The theoretical basis for a system based on a delayed hypersensitivity skin test for screening extensively managed cattle herds for the presence of brucellosis is discussed. Calculations based on the hypergeometric distribution and test sensitivity are used to calculate the probabilities with which the skin test may identify herds in which infection is present at different prevalence. It is concluded that despite the relatively low sensitivity of the skin test the probability of its identifying a herd as infected is sufficiently high for it to be used as a low-cost screening test.

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