A Test of the Unraveling Hypothesis: Constitutional Bargaining and the Quality of African Institutions

Abstract

This paper focuses on the source of path dependency in institutions. Within a bargaining theory of reform, the domain of bargaining and number of bargains reached determine the path of institutional change. The French and British governments negotiated with their various African independence movements during the 1950s, and produced a relatively large number of relatively liberal independence constitutions. After independence, a series of political and military shocks created natural moments for constitutional reform that unraveled the relatively high-quality political and legal institutions agreed to in the years leading to independence, although some unraveled more than others. The African countries that began with the narrowest domain of constitutional bargaining and experienced the fewest political shocks generally have better contemporary institutions than states that began with less restrictive constitutional rules and experienced more constitutional moments.