A test of J2000 model in a glacierized catchment in the central Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

In this paper, the application of a fully distributed hydrological model J2000 with limited hydrological data was investigated in an alpine small and glacierized catchment, the Qugaqie (55 km2 with 7.3% glacier area), in the central Tibetan Plateau (TP). The J2000 was examined to investigate the influence on model performance, as well as on data, parameters and sensitivities. The model was calibrated with time series of discharge at the basin outlet for the summers of 2006 and 2007 and validated for the summer of 2008 by examining multiple objective functions. The model coefficients of determination were 0.62 and 0.91 for the calibration periods in 2006 and 2007, respectively, and 0.56 for the validation period in 2008. Simulated discharge was generally less than the observed values for the calibration and validation periods. The sensitivity to alteration in meteorological parameter has revealed that a change in air temperature would cause a dramatic increase of discharge in the Qugaqie catchment. Hypothetical climate scenario experiments showed that the increase of air temperature by 1°C resulted in 14% increase in runoff, whereas 20% increase in precipitation caused 9% increase in runoff but 12% reduction in glacier melt.