A territorial fire vulnerability model for Mediterranean ecosystems in South America

Abstract

A forest fire risk model was designed and applied to a South American Mediterranean ecosystem, taking into consideration three analysis groups: fire risk; danger of fire spread, or propagation; and damage potential over economic threat values. The study area for development and validation of the model was the Mediterranean zone of central Chile and employed data from historical records spanning a 14year period (1997–2010). Territorial data layers, combined with analysis of the statistical database and wildfire simulation have enabled areas of highest vulnerability to be defined with greater precision, especially in sectors associated with the urban–wildland interface (defined as the zone where man-made structures meet wildland). Maps generated by this model have enabled improvements to be made to the traditional mapping of fires currently undertaken in South American countries. The results shown here are applicable to other Mediterranean areas, where modifications are made to the entrance variables in the risk model.