A temporal graph framework for intelligence extraction in social media networks

Abstract

Social media networks (SMNs) are increasingly used in professional management of knowledge workers and related assets. However, the factors affecting behavioral trends and activity levels in these networks are not well understood. Although social and cognitive theories can help to explain human behavior in traditional social networks, their application to SMNs has not been validated. Traditional social network modeling techniques may not accurately predict real-world SMN activities. This research developed a temporal graph framework for intelligence extraction in SMNs. Theory-based, data-driven models (Conformity Model (COM), Recency-Primacy Model (REM), Trend Interaction Model (TIM), Periodic Interaction Model (PIM)) were developed based on the framework to capture various aspects of user behavior: conformity effect, recency, primacy, periodicity, and dynamic trend. The models capture the activity history and dynamically combine pricing information to enhance predictive accuracy. Using data of 83,536 GitHub software repositories on cryptocurrency, this article reports the results of experiments that compare the models’ performance in predicting SMN activities over time. Experimental results show that the model (REM) that captures recency/primacy effects of human cognitive processing outperformed other models in 9 (out of 18) measures pertaining to engagement, contribution, influence, and popularity. Primacy plays a dominant role in predicting engagement, contribution, and popularity, whereas recency plays a key role in predicting influence. Short-term trend (modeled with TIM) was found to yield significantly better performance on predicting user contribution. The models also outperformed an integrated machine learning (IML) model by most measures. Overall, the effects modeled by REM and TIM were found to be more significant than the effects modeled by COM, PIM, and IML. The research contributes to enhancing understanding of SMN behavior, developing new models to simulate and predict SMN activities, and designing new artifacts for information systems practitioners to manage knowledge assets and to extract SMN intelligence.