Abstract
Background: The age standardised death rate from motor neuron disease (MND) has increased from 1.29 to 2.74 per 100,000, an increase of 112.4% between 1959 and 2013. It is clear that genetics could not have played a causal role in the increased rate of MND deaths over such a short time span. We postulate that environmental factors are responsible for this rate increase. We focus on lead additives in Australian petrol as a possible contributing environmental factor. Methods: The associations between historical petrol lead emissions and MND death trends in Australia between 1962 and 2013 were examined using linear regressions. Results: Regression results indicate best fit correlations between a 20 year lag of petrol lead emissions and age-standardised female death rate (R2 = 0.86, p = 4.88 × 10−23), male age standardised death rate (R2 = 0.86, p = 9.4 × 10−23) and percent all cause death attributed to MND (R2 = 0.98, p = 2.6 × 10−44). Conclusion: Legacy petrol lead emissions are associated with increased MND death trends in Australia. Further examination of the 20 year lag between exposure to petrol lead and the onset of MND is warranted.
Highlights
Motor Neuron Disease (MND) is a general term for neurological disorders that affect motor neurons which are cells that control voluntary muscles including those affecting breathing speaking, swallowing and walking
Veiga-Cabo et al (1997) [2] documented that motor neuron disease (MND) mortality rates increased in numerous countries between about 1970 and 1990
File data are provided to the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) by the Registries of Births, Deaths and Marriages and the National Coronial Information System and include cause of death coded by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) (ICD10 code G12.2)
Summary
Motor Neuron Disease (MND) is a general term for neurological disorders that affect motor neurons which are cells that control voluntary muscles including those affecting breathing speaking, swallowing and walking. Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is the commonest form of MND, affecting both corticomotor neurons in the cerebrum and the anterior horn cells in the brainstem and spinal cord [1]. This neurodegenerative disease results in increasing disability and, eventually, death. Trends of Increases in Rates of Motor Neuron Disease (MND). A review of the literature indicates that MND mortality rates have generally shown increasing trends. Veiga-Cabo et al (1997) [2] documented that MND mortality rates increased in numerous countries between about 1970 and 1990. In France, Durrleman and Alperovitch (1989) [3] found that between the time periods of 1968–1971 and 1979–1982 the adjusted mortality rates (per 100,000)
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