A technology-based mass emission factors of gases and aerosol precursor and spatial distribution of emissions from on-road transport sector in India

Abstract

This study presents a new emission estimate of gaseous pollutants including CO, CO2, and NOX from on-road transport sector of India for the base year 2013. For the first time, a detailed vintage-wise on-road measured emission factors used for reducing uncertainties in emission estimates. The consumptions of diesel, gasoline, and compressed natural gas (CNG) were also estimated at the national level and disaggregated at the state level. The national average use of diesel, gasoline, and CNG and their 95% confidence interval estimated as 52 (39–66), 24 (18–30), and 1.6 (1.2–2.0) MTy−1 for the year 2013. The CO, CO2, and NOX emissions were estimated as 7349 (3220–11477) Gg y−1, 261 (179–343) Tg y−1, and 4052 (2127–5977) Gg y−1, respectively from on-road transport sector for the year 2013. New vehicles registered after 2005 emit 70–80% of national level CO2, and NOX, while rest 20–30% were emitted by old vehicles registered before 2005. Old and new vehicles both equally contributed to CO emissions. Superemitters accounted for 14% of total traffic volume, but they were responsible for 17–57% of total CO2, CO and NOX emissions. The uncertainties in emission estimates were reduced to 48–56% compared to previous estimates (62–136%). The comparison with recent studies for nationwide emission estimates from 4-wheelers indicated that use of emission factors from dynamometer studies can underestimate the emissions by 32–92% for various pollutants, while an overestimation by 20–82% was seen with the use of emission model derived emission factors. Similarly for Delhi city recent CO and NOx emission estimates for 4-wheelers based on emission factors reported from dynamometer studies were 23–89% lower than present work. The present work revealed the need for representative vintage wise emission factor database development from on-road measurement and the more comprehensive assessment of activity data through survey.