A Technology Forecasting and Assessment Method for Evaulating System Utility and Operator Workload

Abstract

In the context of system design, technology assessment often proceeds in a bottom-up fashion, beginning with an evaluation of individual candidate system technologies. Issues of technology integration and human factors considerations are not addressed until later in system development. This paper proposes the use of a top down approach to technology assessment. The top-down approach has the advantage of evaluating technologies along dimensions of system utility, as well as technical performance, and treating human factors early in conceptual design. A technology forecasting and assessment methodology is described wherein technologies can be evaluated quantitatively in terms of technical performance, system utility, and operator workload.