A Techno-Economic and Environmental Analysis of Queensland’s Transition Towards a Low Carbon Society

Abstract

This study develops a scenario-based model to analyze the impact of energy policies that may influence Queensland’s transition towards a low carbon society by 2050. The Schwartz scenario methodology was applied in techno-economic and environmental contexts and the Long-range Energy Alternative and planning system was used to analyze the performance of the scenarios. The scenarios include a Business as Usual (BAU) case and three alternative scenarios which represent the policy options added in incremental order. The three alternative scenarios and BAU scenario were compared in terms of energy, economic and environmental aspects. The results show that if Queensland expanded its current renewable energy target and increased energy efficiency policies, increased benefits in emission and cost savings could be achieved by 2050. A sensitivity analysis showed that the increased penetration of renewables in the electricity grid would not only diversify Queensland energy mix, but ensure energy security and economic benefits of 54.4–57.2% cost savings depending on the policies implemented. Therefore, this study recommends an increased share of renewables in Queensland energy mix above 83% by 2050, since the investment cost today will outweigh the high fueling cost, environmental pollution and energy security concern in the future.