Abstract
To evaluate the effectiveness of random urinalysis drug testing strategies, it is necessary to estimate the probability of detecting drug users, that is, the probability that users will be selected for drug testing and test positive. Methodologies were developed for estimating the probability of detecting nongaming drug users under a variety of drug wear-off models. It was observed that the probability of detection is proportional and the expected number of months until detection is inversely proportional to the monthly test rate.
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