A Technique for Efficient Estimation of Dynamic Structural Equation Models: A Case Study

Abstract

Dynamic structural equation models (DSEM) are designed for time series analysis of latent structures. Inherent to the application of DSEM is model parameter estimation, which has to be addressed in many applications by a single time series. In this context, however, the methods currently available either lack estimation quality or are computationally inefficient. Given the era of big data, the necessity for a trade-off between these properties may be detrimental to the applicability of DSEM. The paper is aimed at tackling this trade-off by proposing a novel estimator recursioning technique (ER technique) that facilitates the development of computationally efficient raw-data maximum likelihood estimation algorithms through data transformation, covariance matrix block decomposition, likelihood function reduction, and estimator recursioning steps. The ER technique is introduced by applying it to a special case of the general dynamic structural equation model that encompasses a noisy Wiener-process-type structure with input from the factor-analytic model. The resulting algorithm has been verified through a number of numerical experiments as well as implemented in a brand new R package EMLI, which is available on CRAN.