A tale of two suburbias: Turning up the heat in Southern California's flammable wildland-urban interface

Abstract

As Southern California becomes hotter and dryer, wildfires are becoming more frequent and severe. At the same time, the suburbanization of poverty and immigration are making the region increasingly – albeit unevenly - diverse. This paper synthesizes insights from planning and ecology to address the following questions: how do burned areas differ from the rest of the region in terms of poverty, race, and housing values; how has this changed since 1980; and what are the implications for environmental justice? Typically, low-income urban communities of color are disproportionately vulnerable to climate impacts. However, this study finds that the wildland-adjacent neighborhoods most impacted by wildfire have remained predominantly white and affluent, even as Southern California has become increasingly diverse. Moreover, housing in burned areas is increasingly more expensive. These results indicate that home ownership in a fire-prone, wildland-adjacent neighborhood is a profitable investment for those who can afford it. This situation is likely creating perverse incentives for continued development of the wildland-urban interface, leading to both continued ecological disturbance and affluent residents continuing to subject themselves to more physical danger than they have acknowledged.