A tale of two selection biases: The independent effects of relative age and biological maturity on player selection in the Football Association of Ireland's national talent pathway

Abstract

This study investigated the associations between biological maturation status (classified using the Khamis–Roche method for the percentage of predicted adult height at the time of observation) and relative age (expressed as a decimal value relative to the difference between birth date and competition cut-off date) and the extent to which their relative selection biases existed across competitive age groups in an analysis of players within the Football Association of Ireland's (FAI) national talent pathway. The players assessed were either from the U13 FAI National Academy ( n = 125), the Ireland U15 national team ( n = 18), or the Ireland U16 national team ( n = 16). A moderate to very large selection bias in favour of early maturing players was observed across all age groups, increasing in magnitude with successive age groups ( p < 0.05). A total of 46–72% of players selected into the national talent pathway were early maturing; 0% of U15 and U16 players were late maturing. A relative age effect existed across all competitive cohorts ( p < 0.05), although not increasing with chronological age and smaller in magnitude than maturation biases. A small positive correlation between relative age and absolute maturity status at U13 was observed, and an inverse correlation between relative age and relative maturity status at U15 ( p < 0.01) was observed. There were no other significant correlations between relative or absolute maturity status and relative age. We encourage Football Associations to critically reflect upon their criteria for national talent squad selection; the current system diminishes the chances of selection for late maturing players.