Abstract
The fall of the Ming dynasty in the first half of the 17th century and the Taiping Rebellion from 1851–1864 were two of the most chaotic periods in Chinese history, and each was accompanied by large-scale population collapses. The ‘Kang-Qian Golden Age’ (also known as ‘High Qing’), during which population size expanded rapidly, falls in between the two. Scholars remain divided in their opinions concerning the above alternation of population growth and decline as to whether variations in population size or climate change should be identified as the root cause. In either case, the synergistic impact of population growth and climate change upon population growth dynamics is overlooked. In the present study, we utilized high-resolution empirical data, qualitative survey, statistical comparison and time-series analysis to investigate how the two factors worked synergistically to drive population cycles in 1600–1899. To facilitate our research, we posited a set of simplified pathways for population growth in historical agrarian China. Our results confirm that the interrelation between population growth, climate change and population crises in recent Chinese history basically followed our posited pathways. The recurrences of population crises were largely determined by the combination of population growth and climate change. Our results challenge classic Malthusian/post-Malthusian interpretations and historians’ views of historical Chinese population cycles.
Highlights
The fall of the Ming dynasty in the first half of the 17th century and the Taiping Rebellion in 1851–1864 were two of the most chaotic periods in Chinese history.1 The consequences for China were devastating; those periods were marked by rampant natural calamities, widespread social unrest, deadly military conflicts and large-scale population collapses
2 We found that over the past millennium, the peaks of various population checks coincided with periods of cold climate; five of six cold phases are associated with population collapses (Lee and Zhang 2010)
Any direct indictor regarding the population pressure engendered by the synthesis of population expansion and cooling is not available, the pressure can be revealed by the frequent famines and nearly 0 % population growth rate during the period (Fig. 2i)
Summary
The fall of the Ming dynasty in the first half of the 17th century and the Taiping Rebellion in 1851–1864 were two of the most chaotic periods in Chinese history. The consequences for China were devastating; those periods were marked by rampant natural calamities, widespread social unrest, deadly military conflicts and large-scale population collapses. The heydays of dynasties and rapid population growth coincided with favorable climate and vice versa (Fan 2010; Ji 1989; Jiang et al 2004; Lan and Jiang 2005; Li 1999; Liu 1994; Long 1989; Man 2009; Pan 1994; Tang and Tang 2000, 2002; Wang 1996; Zhang 1999). Their consensus suggests that human societies are not closed systems; they are affected by the physical world. Mortality and population data for the period are abundant and accurate, which is critically important in proving any causal relationship
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