A Tactical Ice Management Simulation Methodology and Approach

Abstract

Abstract There are a number of models that have been developed to assess ice management effectiveness. Many of these models are relatively simple in terms of how they treat pack ice conditions and ice management vessel performance needs. The Chevron Arctic Center has recently developed a substantially more advanced ice management model, one that incorporates key factors such as the full spectrum of "difficult ice situations", ice management support aspects such as level ice, pressure ridge and rubble field fragmentation, and other constraining effects on ice management operations such as poor visibility, darkness and ice pressure events. In this paper, the Chevron ice management modeling approach is described. Key aspects include how ice conditions and dynamics are treated, and how ice management vessel effectiveness is assessed. Sensitivities relating to the number and capability of different ice management vessels are also noted. This method is probabilistically based and allows the user to assess the risk of "ice management failures" in relation to platform station-keeping limits, the ice management support system and the ice environment being considered. Several representative examples of this analysis approach are given.