A systemic approach for climate risk assessment applied to thermoelectric power plants in northeastern coast of Brazil

Abstract

Climate change imposes risks on assets, systems and operations of enterprises in the electricity sector, whose management of climate risk is becoming increasingly important. This paper proposes a methodological structure to support the identification, analysis and assessment of climatic risks in thermoelectric power plants, integrating concepts from the IPCC (AR5) methodological structure, the ISO 31000 risk management and the principles of adaptation to climate changes proposed by ISO 14090. Five plants in the coastal zone of the Northeast Region of Brazil are studied, with the indication of strategic climatic and non-climatic stressors, criteria of significance for determining hazards, exposure, vulnerability, and risk. Aspects of design, operation, maintenance and performance are investigated based on assumptions for climate sensitive plants components. It is stressed the need of combining observed data and numerical models’ data for correct assessing future climate projections. However, climate risk must be reassessed on a regular basis at decadal intervals, in order to absorb ongoing changes in climate and to make decisions which favor resilient options.