A systematic review of potential habitat suitability for the jaguar Panthera onca in central Arizona and New Mexico, USA

Eric W Sanderson,Kim Fisher,Jennifer R B Miller,Philip S Miller,Melissa M Grigione,James R Hatten,Curtis M Bradley,Rob Peters,Cristina Mormorunni,Bryan Bird,Michael J Robinson,Robert E Thomas,Jon P Beckmann,Juan Carlos Bravo,Sharon Wilcox,Kurt Menke,Carlos A Lopez González

doi:10.1017/s0030605320000459

Abstract

AbstractIn April 2019, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) released its recovery plan for the jaguar Panthera onca after several decades of discussion, litigation and controversy about the status of the species in the USA. The USFWS estimated that potential habitat, south of the Interstate-10 highway in Arizona and New Mexico, had a carrying capacity of c. six jaguars, and so focused its recovery programme on areas south of the USA–Mexico border. Here we present a systematic review of the modelling and assessment efforts over the last 25 years, with a focus on areas north of Interstate-10 in Arizona and New Mexico, outside the recovery unit considered by the USFWS. Despite differences in data inputs, methods, and analytical extent, the nine previous studies found support for potential suitable jaguar habitat in the central mountain ranges of Arizona and New Mexico. Applying slightly modified versions of the USFWS model and recalculating an Arizona-focused model over both states provided additional confirmation. Extending the area of consideration also substantially raised the carrying capacity of habitats in Arizona and New Mexico, from six to 90 or 151 adult jaguars, using the modified USFWS models. This review demonstrates the crucial ways in which choosing the extent of analysis influences the conclusions of a conservation plan. More importantly, it opens a new opportunity for jaguar conservation in North America that could help address threats from habitat losses, climate change and border infrastructure.

Highlights

In April, the U.S Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) released its recovery plan (USFWS, ) for the jaguar Panthera onca after several decades of litigation and controversy about the status of, and the future for, this felid in the USA
We contribute to these debates by documenting potential habitat for the jaguar in the central mountains of Arizona and New Mexico, an area not considered in the latest recovery plan, and explore the implications of this additional area for conservation of the species as a whole
Our focal question was: Do scientific models and assessments of potential habitat for the jaguar Panthera onca in Arizona and New Mexico indicate suitability in areas north of Interstate- ? If so, which areas (Fig. )? To answer this question, we developed a review protocol based on inclusion criteria

Summary

Introduction

In April , the U.S Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) released its recovery plan (USFWS, ) for the jaguar Panthera onca after several decades of litigation and controversy about the status of, and the future for, this felid in the USA. The jaguar is listed as an endangered species in the USA (USFWS, ) and categorized as Near Threatened on the IUCN Red List (Quigley et al, ). We contribute to these debates by documenting potential habitat for the jaguar in the central mountains of Arizona and New Mexico, an area not considered in the latest recovery plan, and explore the implications of this additional area for conservation of the species as a whole. The USFWS jaguar recovery plan described two geographical units of jaguar conservation, and recovery criteria for each.

Methods

Results

Conclusion