Year-end Sale % OFF 
Abstract
Mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission originated in the early twentieth century to provide insights into how to most effectively combat malaria. The foundations of the Ross–Macdonald theory were established by 1970. Since then, there has been a growing interest in reducing the public health burden of mosquito-borne pathogens and an expanding use of models to guide their control. To assess how theory has changed to confront evolving public health challenges, we compiled a bibliography of 325 publications from 1970 through 2010 that included at least one mathematical model of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and then used a 79-part questionnaire to classify each of 388 associated models according to its biological assumptions. As a composite measure to interpret the multidimensional results of our survey, we assigned a numerical value to each model that measured its similarity to 15 core assumptions of the Ross–Macdonald model. Although the analysis illustrated a growing acknowledgement of geographical, ecological and epidemiological complexities in modelling transmission, most models during the past 40 years closely resemble the Ross–Macdonald model. Modern theory would benefit from an expansion around the concepts of heterogeneous mosquito biting, poorly mixed mosquito-host encounters, spatial heterogeneity and temporal variation in the transmission process.
Highlights
More than a century has passed since Ross first described malaria transmission mathematically [1,2] and more than 50 years since Macdonald updated and extended Ross’s theory and applied it to the Global Malaria Eradication Programme (GMEP, 1955–1969) [3,4,5,6]
It is important to note that for ease of interpretation, we often report the number of elaborations on the Ross– Macdonald model relative to the fraction of models to which they are pertinent; as such, for many of the proportions presented, the denominator equals the fraction of pertinent models, not the total number of models considered
Over the past 40 years, mathematical models have expanded on the simple but elegant themes introduced by the Ross – Macdonald model
Summary
More than a century has passed since Ross first described malaria transmission mathematically [1,2] and more than 50 years since Macdonald updated and extended Ross’s theory and applied it to the Global Malaria Eradication Programme (GMEP, 1955–1969) [3,4,5,6]. After the Second World War, Macdonald picked up where Ross left off and focused on developing a highly applied theory to complement the global public health rollout of DDT, the creation of the World Health Organization and burgeoning enthusiasm for malaria eradication. Ross’s vision had been fulfilled by the development of a fully quantitative theory, consisting of a set of linked concepts, notation and metrics for understanding and measuring mosquitoborne pathogen transmission and control. A detailed account of the development of the theory up to this point in history was recently published [11]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
