Abstract
Airport environmental carrying capacity (AECC) provides the fundamental conditions for airport development and operation activities. The prediction of AECC is a necessary condition for planning an appropriate development mode for the airport. This paper studies the dynamic prediction method of the AECC to explore the development characteristics of AECC in different airports. Based on the driving force-pressure-state-response (DPSR) framework, the method selects 17 main variables from economic, social, environmental and operational dimensions, and then combines the drawing of causal loop diagrams and the establishment of system flow diagrams to construct the system dynamics (SD) model of AECC. The predicted values of AECC are obtained through SD model simulation and accelerated genetic algorithm projection pursuit (AGA-PP) model calculation. Considering sustainable development needs, different scenarios are set to analyze the appropriate development mode of the airport. The case study of the Pearl River Delta airports resulted in two main conclusions. First, in the same economic zone, different airports with similar aircraft movements have similar development characteristics of AECC. Second, the appropriate development modes for different airports are different, and the appropriate development modes for the airport in different periods are also different. The case study also proves that the AECC prediction based on SD model and AGA-PP model can realize short-term policy formulation and long-term planning for the airport development mode, and provide decision-making support for relevant departments of airport.
Highlights
In order to promote the sustainable development of the airport, scholars have considered the impact of sustainable development elements such as society, economy and environment on the airport [4], carried out research on the evaluation of the airport’s sustainable development and achieved some research results [5,6], but rarely to comprehensively study the development characteristics of the airport from the relationship between operation and economic and social and environmental factors
In order to measure the level of sustainable development of the airport, we explored the key factors that affect the development of the airport
Lili Wan studied the connotation of Airport environmental carrying capacity (AECC) and the AECC evaluation process based on the accelerated genetic algorithm projection pursuit (AGA-PP) model [12], and the results prove the feasibility of the evaluation process
Summary
The rapid development of the air transportation industry has caused a negative impact on the local society, economy and environment [1]. The increased operating volume of the airport has caused a series of problems such as air pollution, noise impact, carbon emissions, and flight delays [2]. These negative impacts will change the airport’s ability to service aircraft and vehicle operations and hinder the sustainable development of the airport [3]. In order to explore the development characteristics of airport from the relationship between internal and external factors, Airport environmental carrying capacity (AECC) has gradually attracted attention [10]
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