A System Dynamics Modelling of a Long-term Residential Electricity Consumption in Lomé, Togo

Abstract

According to the Togolese Policy and Regulatory Overviews on Clean Energy, the residential sector in Lomé accounts for nearly 60 percent of the total electricity consumption. This fact is especially due to the current nature of the economy. A system dynamics model was built using Stella software to estimate both the current and long-term household electricity consumptions. These near (2030) and far future (2050) energy forecasts were carried out for Lomé, the capital city of Togo. Two different models were not only built, but also calibrated utilizing data from the past sixteen years as a benchmark. The first model was built based on the: 1) population, 2) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, and 3) per capita electricity consumption. The second model was solely based on the: 1) number of households with electricity and 2) households accessing electricity. Results revealed that the population of Lomé under the current birth rate will be close to 3 million in 2030 and 5 million in 2050, with corresponding electricity consumption close to 860 GWh and 3 TWh, respectively. Therefore, growth in population, economy, and number of households with electricity will continue to drive the future electricity consumption in Lomé. This study could help investors and policy-makers to set the necessary investments by ensuring a timely, reliable, and resilient electricity supply at the turning of 2050 in the city of Lomé and the country at large.