A system dynamics modeling to evaluate flooding impacts on municipal solid waste management services

Abstract

The municipal solid waste management service system has been one of the most important service provisions in the city. Complex linkages within the system are impacted by waste quantities and qualities. Due to the complex characteristic of stock and flow in a waste management system, it is difficult to design a sustainable management system that can handle varying conditions, particularly in case of a disaster. Interferences from the natural disaster i.e. flooding could potentially affect the entire MSWM system. Flooding is a major disaster in many regions of the world and poses a challenge as an external disturbance to any part of the waste management system.This research has applied the concept of system dynamics (SD) to understand patterns and evaluate flood impacts on the waste management systems of 22 districts that transport waste to the Nongkhaem transfer station in Bangkok, Thailand. The SD model of waste management illustrates waste generation trends and collection and transfer patterns to predict potential flood-affected areas.The research analyzed different flooding hazard scenarios and evaluated potential impacts within flood-prone areas. The results proved that flooding has various degree of impacts on the accumulated waste amounts of services areas within and outside the flooded areas. The findings can be a guideline to help prepare an appropriate mitigation plan for waste management under flood conditions.