Abstract
This article presents a customized system dynamics model to facilitate the informed development of policy for urban heat island mitigation within the context of future climate change, and with special emphasis on the reduction of heat-related mortality. The model incorporates a variety of components (incl.: the urban heat island effect; population dynamics; climate change impacts on temperature; and heat-related mortality) and is intended to provide urban planning and related professionals with: a facilitated means of understanding the risk of heat-related mortality within the urban heat island; and location-specific information to support the development of reasoned and targeted urban heat island mitigation policy.
Highlights
Structural equation modeling software package by isee systems, Inc. of Lebanon, NH, USA (n.b., though STELLA was used in this instance, the UHIMPT model is presented in such a way that it may be recreated in other programming languages with other software packages)
The UHIMPT model includes a variety of components and provides the user with the opportunity to estimate the impacts of various hypothetical urban heat island mitigation strategies on heat-related mortality
Philadelphia was selected for the purposes of this demonstration as a result of the author’s familiarity with the area, as well as the fact that the Philadelphia region has a temperate climate with a normal mean annual air temperature that closely approximates that of the continental United States
Summary
Dynamics Model to Facilitate the Development of Policy for Urban. Urban Sci. Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
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