A System Dynamics Model of Caries Preventive Interventions in Thailand's School-Aged Population.

Abstract

To compare the long-term effects of the Ministry of Public Health's (MOPH) caries preventive interventions for 6- to 12-year-olds (supervised toothbrushing [STB], dental sealant, and combined STB+sealant) to the base case (no intervention) using the System Dynamics Model. The System Dynamics Model was used to evaluate the intervention scenarios of supervised toothbrushing (STB), sealant, and combined STB+sealant with the base-case scenario. The effectiveness data for the model's interventions were obtained from systematic reviews and meta-analyses. The model determined that the caries-free population increased by 36.2%, 25.5%, and 14.5%, while the caries-affected population decreased by 8.1%, 5.5%, and 3.1% in the combined STB+sealant, sealant, and supervised toothbrushing scenarios compared to the base case at 15 years of age. Combined STB+sealant is the most efficacious intervention among those administered to children between the ages of 6 and 12 with permanent teeth. In addition, the System Dynamics Model could be helpful in comparing interventions or policies to determine the optimal intervention for a given population.