A system dynamics model for the assessment of national public–private partnership programmes’ sustainable performance

Abstract

In this study, we propose a novel system dynamics (SD)-based decision support tool to assess financially and socially sustainable management strategies of national public–private partnership (PPP) programmes. Sustainability is defined as the long-term ability of the actors involved -i.e., public and private sectors and society- to sustain operating PPPs and benefit from them. Causal-loop diagrams reveal the interrelationships among system components and demonstrate that the management of national PPP programmes constitutes a complex dynamic system. The causal-loop diagrams are next transformed into a stock-and-flow diagram to simulate the influence of interrelationships and feedback loops among physical, financial, and social sectors. Extensive numerical experimentation is used to estimate the impact of changes in public policy and in PPP characteristics on the sustainable development of PPP programmes. Finally, the SD model provides a strategic decision support tool for decision makers dealing with the strategic development of PPPs at a regional or national level.