Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to study the relationship between the demand for medical talents in China and the supply of talents in medical colleges and universities. Predicting the future development of medical talents is of great significance to the establishment of medical education and the cultivation of medical talents. Based on data from China Statistical Yearbook and OECD 34 countries from 2010 to 2014, as well as some research results on overseas and domestic scholars, a system dynamics prediction model relating the supply and demand of medical education talents is developed in this paper. Actual data for the Jiangsu Province is used to demonstrate the correctness, validity and applicability of the model. Simulation results show that, under the current conditions and political environment and to maintain the current average levels of OECD 34 countries, the projected number of demand for doctors in Jiangsu in 2024 is a little more than 319,800. Based on current data, there is still quite a large gap between these indexes in China and the desired target levels. Consequently, the system and structure of medical education need to be adjusted, with the corresponding policies and management system simultaneously reformed and medical environment improved.
Highlights
Medical and health services are major livelihood issues affecting the health of hundreds of millions of people and the well-being of millions of households
The purpose of this paper is to study the relationship between the demand for medical talents in China and the supply of talents in medical colleges and universities
Based on data from China Statistical Yearbook and OECD 34 countries from 2010 to 2014, as well as some research results on overseas and domestic scholars, a system dynamics prediction model relating the supply and demand of medical education talents is developed in this paper
Summary
Medical and health services are major livelihood issues affecting the health of hundreds of millions of people and the well-being of millions of households. Prediction and management of medical talents has become a hot topic in academia. With the rapid acceleration of industrialization in China along with the fast-paced urbanization and improvement of people's living standard, there is an increasingly rising demand for improved medical and healthcare services. A huge upsurge in the variety and number of ailments (diseases, injuries, disorders, etc.) has placed tremendous pressure on the already stretched healthcare delivery systems. To help relieve the current status, the need to stay in front of the talents curve is becoming increasingly critical given the dynamics of the current medical
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