Abstract
BackgroundData modeling techniques can create a virtual world to analyze decision systems. National drug authorities can use such techniques to take care of their deficiencies in decision making processes. This study was designed to build a system dynamics model to simulate the effects of market mix variables (5 P’s) on the national drug policy (NDP) indicators including availability, affordability, quality, and rationality. This was aimed to investigate how to increase the rationality of decision making, evaluate different alternatives, reduce the costs and identify the system obstacles.System dynamics is a computer-based approach for analyzing and designing complex systems over time. In this study the cognitive casualty map was developed to make a concept about the system then the stock-flow model was set up based on the market demand and supply concept.ResultsThe model demonstrates the interdependencies between the NDP variables through four cognitive maps. Some issues in availability, willingness to pay, rational use and quality of medicines are pointed in the model. The stock-flow diagram shows how the demand for a medicine is formed and how it is responded through NDP objectives. The effects of changing variables on the other NDP variables can be studied after running the stock-flow model.ConclusionThe model can initiate a fundamental structure for analyzing NDP. The conceptual model made a cognitive map to show many causes’ and effects’ trees and reveals some relations between NDP variables that are usually forgotten in the medicines affairs. The model also provides an opportunity to be expanded with more details on a specific disease for better policy making about medication.
Highlights
Obesity has reached epidemic proportions and is still escalating at an alarming rate worldwide
Obesity is associated with chronic activation of low-grade inflammation [3], which is implicated in the pathogenesis of obesity-associated diseases including insulin resistance, type-2 diabetes (T2D) [4, 5] and cardiovascular disease [6, 7]
A numerous of studies has been shown that shortchain fatty acids (SCFAs) inhibit inflammation with focus on butyrate and to a lesser extent on acetate and Propionic Acid (PA), [16]
Summary
Obesity has reached epidemic proportions and is still escalating at an alarming rate worldwide. In Palestine the prevalence of obesity has been shown to be approximately 4. The etiology of obesity and low-grade inflammation is complex and involves intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The colonization of germ-free mice with microbiota derived from obese mice results in significantly greater adiposity than colonization with microbiota from lean mice [12]. Prebiotic diets such as fructans [13] are associated with general better health, including the decrease in body weight, fat mass and the severity of T2D [14,15,16]. The factors that influence the composition and metabolism of intestinal
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