A System Dynamics Approach to Modeling Groundwater Dynamics: Case Study of the Choshui River Basin

Yun-Hsun Huang,Yan-Jiang Lai,Jung-Hua Wu

doi:10.3390/su14031371

Abstract

Land subsidence resulting from the overexploitation of groundwater is an important issue in the Choshui River Basin, Taiwan. In the current study, we employed system dynamics simulation in modeling the supply of surface and groundwater, as well as the demand for water by industry, water deficits, and mechanisms underlying land subsidence. The proposed model was then used to estimate the magnitude of land subsidence and evaluate various management strategies. Our simulation results revealed that the vigorous enforcement of well sealing would have a modest effect on land subsidence; however, it would also have notable adverse effects on the agricultural community. We determined that reducing the demand for irrigation water (e.g., by switching to less water-intensive crops) would reduce land subsidence, while preserving profitability in those areas. In the future, this policy could be complemented by promoting the adoption of advanced irrigation technology and automatic systems to further slow the excessive exploitation of groundwater, with a corresponding effect on land subsidence.

Highlights

Fresh water is a precious resource, due largely to the fact that humans have direct access to only 2.53% of all the earth’s water [1]
Three scenarios were established in accordance with the tenets of grounded theory, based on an extensive review of the literature and various strategies aimed at reducing land subsidence
The blue line indicates the land subsidence resulting from the sealing of 1500 wells per year

Summary

Introduction

Fresh water is a precious resource, due largely to the fact that humans have direct access to only 2.53% of all the earth’s water [1]. In 2015, the United Nations (UN) proposed the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including ‘Clean Water and Sanitation’ (Goal 6), aimed at ensuring that all humans have access to water and sanitation. Access to fresh water promotes the goals of ‘No Poverty’ (Goal 1), ‘Zero Hunger’ (Goal 2), ‘Sustainable. Overexploitation of groundwater causes water tables to decline, such that aquifer systems become compressed. This leads to land subsidence, which can have a permanent effect on water storage capacity and underground infrastructure [3]

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion