Abstract

This article discusses the difficulties of analysing very complex problems by purely verbal or mathematical methods, and suggests that a compromise may lie in a formally rigorous approach of diagrammatic system description. The importance of Counter Insurgency Warfare is briefly reviewed, and the rigorous approach is applied to produce a diagrammatic model of the influences at work between Government and Insurgents. The feedback structures of the model are analysed to detect the asymmetric mechanisms of victory for both sides, and policy implications for the Government are analysed.

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