Abstract
Future climate change is projected to have significant impacts on water resources availability in many parts of the world. This research evaluated climate change impacts on runoff, aquifer infiltration, renewable water resources, and drought intensity in Salt Lake sub-basin, Iran, by the Soil and Water assessment tool (SWAT) model and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) under A1B, A2, and B1 climatic scenarios for 2011–2030, 2046–2065, and 2080–2099, using 1986–2016 as the reference period. The model was calibrated and validated by the SWAT-CUP software and SUFI-2 algorithm. Nash–Sutcliffe (NS) coefficients (0.58 and 0.49) and the determination coefficients (R2) (0.65 and 0.50) were obtained for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. In order to study the climatic condition in the study basin, drought intensity was calculated. Then, drought intensity was predicted using the SPI index for the period 2011–2030. The results showed that runoff, infiltration, as well as renewable water resources will decrease under all climatic scenarios. Renewable water resources will be approximately reduced 100 Mm3 by the year 2100. The future projections suggest a regional increase of 2 °C in temperature and a 20% decrease in precipitation in the sub-basin. In particular, drought intensity will be increased in the future. In 2015, this index was −1.31, and in 2016, the SPI index was lower than −2. These projection scenarios should be of interest to water resources managers in tropical regions.
Highlights
The management and planning of water resources are becoming more challenging as a consequence of the uncertainties of climate change [1]
This study examined the climate change impact on the surveyed basin drought, runoff, percolation, and renewable water resources during the periods 2011–2030, 2046–2065, and 2080–2099, using a hydrological (SWAT) model
The results showed that severe droughts will be observed in the study basin
Summary
The management and planning of water resources are becoming more challenging as a consequence of the uncertainties of climate change [1]. Devkota and Gyawali (2015) employed the SWAT model for hydrological simulation in order to investigate the climate change effect on the management and the hydrology of Kushi River basin in Nepal. Their results showed that climate change is not a large threat to available water in that area, though the projected flow was strongly dependent on the climate change implemented in the climate model [7]. Montaseri and Amirataee (2016) used 50 years of historical precipitation data at 12 stations in different parts of the planet to produce 1000 consecutive series of artificial rainfall and compared different methods of drought monitoring Their results showed that the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method is the most accurate and realistic indicator for drought analysis [9]. In Awash basin, Ethiopia, Daba (2018) conducted a study on runoff sensitivity to temperature and precipitation and observed a high runoff
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