A Sustainable U.S. Energy Plan

Abstract

This report gives guidance on what could be done to overcome the political stalemate that has long blocked the creation of a sustainable energy plan, leaving the United States vulnerable to oil imports while emitting large amounts of greenhouse gases. An overall energy policy is suggested for use by political leaders, along with specific goals on climate change and national security. This report proposes a timetable by which the climate change and national security goals should be accomplished. Converting these political goals into a cost-effective energy plan that would continue to get long-term political support would be the task of the technical community. A generic process is described which applies to all future energy systems and would give guidance to the technical community on how to create a mix of energy sources and conservation. This generic process is then tested on three possible energy futures. One energy future proposes that all of our electricity should come from renewable sources within 10 years. It is shown to be inadequate and would exacerbate environmental risks. The second possible energy future adds far more nuclear energy and coal plants with carbon capture and sequestration to the above renewable-only proposal. This second plan was a significant improvement over the all-renewable energy proposal, but does not address how transportation might be accomplished in the future. Converting coal to liquid fuels is identified as the major means to produce liquid fuels, as long as non-carbon dioxide emitting sources of process heat/hydrogen are employed in this coal conversion process. The third proposal, called an Energy Family approach, places first emphasis on conservation and then creates a mix of energy sources, renewable, nuclear, coal, natural gas, and some oil that could meet all the energy demands of a modern society, while staying within environmental and national security limits. This third approach appears to be most likely to get continuing support. There can be significant progress through “Second Generation” conservation, which extracts much more energy from our existing electrical generation and transmission system. Coal would have to undergo a major transformation from producing electricity to producing liquid fuels for transportation. Transportation and space heating and cooling would be far more electrified. Nuclear power would have to be expanded to replace many of the phased out coal plants, to provide electricity for transportation, and to supply high-temperature process heat and hydrogen. Long-term programs need to be put in place to assure nuclear power’s continuing contribution. Finally, energy storage is a component which is often overlooked, but is essential. It could overcome fundamental renewable energy difficulties of variability and the possibility of wind power to create electrical grid instabilities. It is shown that an Energy Family approach could accelerate the development of renewable energy.