A Sustainable Century?

Abstract

This chapter traces the long-run development of genuine savings (GS) during the twentieth century using a panel of developed countries (Great Britain, Germany, Switzerland, France, the US, and Australia) and resource-abundant countries in Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico) representing approximately 50% of the world’s output in terms of GDP by 1950. It includes large economies and small open economies, and resource-rich and resource-scarce countries, allowing comparison of their historical experiences. Components of GS considered include physical and human capital as well as resource extraction and pollution damages. Generally, there is evidence of positive GS over the course of the twentieth century, although the two world wars and the Great Depression left considerable marks, but also striking differences between Latin American and developed countries when total factor productivity is included; this could be a signal of natural resource curse or technological gaps unnoticed in previous works.