A Survival Analysis of China’s Trade of Environmental Goods

Abstract

Based on data at the HS-6 digit level, this paper uses survival analysis to present characteristics concerning the survival of China’s exports and imports of environmental goods during the period 2002–2020, and compares them with those of other major exporting and importing countries. The major findings are summarized as follows: For exports, the average length of all trade spells was 8.36 years, and the length of only 18.72% of them was more than 18 years, which shows a disadvantage compared with other countries. The hazard rate was 0.31 in the first year of export, and the export survival rate of China’s environmental goods was always at the highest level compared with the others. By category, the export survival of environmental monitoring and evaluation goods was the best, and the export survival of renewable energy goods was the worst. For imports, the average length of all trade spells was 6.08 years, and the length of 50.37% of them was equal to 1 year, which are worse results than those of other countries. The hazard rate was up to 0.48 in the first year of imports, which is higher than those of other countries. By category, the environmental monitoring and evaluation goods had worse early import survival and better long-term survival, whereas the renewable energy goods experienced the opposite. Whether for exports or imports, the survival rate is higher when China trades with regions that signed a regional trade agreement with it.