A Survival Analysis of Childhood Family History

Abstract

The history of family placement was studied in a birth cohort of New Zealand preschool children. This showed the presence of a complex process of change over time. By 6 years, 16% of children born to two-parent families had experienced a family breakdown; and extrapolation of these trends suggests that by the time this cohort reaches 16 years about 35% to 40% of children born to two-parent families will have experienced family breakdown. For children whose parents separate, it was estimated that over 70% would re-enter a two-parent family within four years of the family breakdown as a result of eitherparental reconciliation or remarriage. The survival probabilities of these second two-parent families were poor, with over two-thirds of reconciliations and over half of remarriages ending in breakdown within four years. Of the children born to single-parent families, over twothirds had entered two-parent families by 6 years. However, the survival probabilities of these families were poor, and estimates suggested that within four years nearly two-thirds of these families had broken down. These findings suggest that, once children left the traditional two-parent family, there was a strong possibility that they would be exposed to multiple situations involving both marriage formation and breakdown. Various implications of these findings are discussed.