A survey of space cost models

Abstract

How do cost models help in making economic decisions about space transportation vehicles? To what extent do cost models illuminate the cost impact of decisions due to management, technical, engineering and manufacturing, and cultural factors? What types of cost explanatory variables are used and what are their impacts? We shall first identify cost drivers across several space cost models: PRICE-H, SEER-H, TRANSCOST, and NAFCOM, and then classify them by using a management cost reduction matrix. Second, we shall review cost explanatory variables for vehicle structure, engine system, and process and technical parameters. Third, we will present a simple baseline, consisting of a launch vehicle structure and engine and discuss methodology to develop the inter-model comparison of cost drivers. Fourth, we will present the economic properties of the cost models which include economies of size, schedule, learning curve and process improvement, and economic externalities. The concluding section lists the most important cost drivers and comments on each cost model’s strengths.