Abstract
This paper examines the predictive capacity of two Grey Systems Forecasting models. The original Grey GM(1,1) Forecasting model, introduced by Deng [1] [2] together with an improved Grey GM(1,1) model proposed by Ji et al. [3] are used to forecast medical tourism demand for Bermuda. The paper also introduces a quasi-optimization method for the optimization of the alpha (weight) parameter. Five steps ahead out-of-sample forecasts are produced after estimating the models using four data points. The results indicate that the optimization of the alpha parameter substantially improves the predictive accuracy of the models; reducing the five steps ahead out-of-sample Mean Absolute Percentage Error from roughly 7% to roughly 3.80% across the two models. Largely, the forecasting approaches demonstrate significant potential for use as an alternative to the traditional forecasting methods in circumstances where substantial amounts of high-quality data are not available.
Highlights
With the massive increase in the availability of information, communication and medical technology, combined with major advances in trade relations and expanded patient mobility inter alia [4] [5] [6], there has emerged a new and embryonic pattern of consumption of medical services
The results indicate that the optimization of the alpha parameter substantially improves the predictive accuracy of the models; reducing the five steps ahead out-of-sample Mean Absolute Percentage Error from roughly 7% to roughly 3.80% across the two models
As the Caribbean region contemplates entering the medical tourism market in a meaningful way, there is a clear need for a reliable mechanism through which demands for the product may be gauged
Summary
With the massive increase in the availability of information, communication and medical technology, combined with major advances in trade relations and expanded patient mobility inter alia [4] [5] [6], there has emerged a new and embryonic pattern of consumption of medical services. This pattern of consumption of medical services involves patients crossing national, regional and international frontiers as they seek to fulfil specific and general health needs. A recent Patients Beyond Borders report estimates the global medical tourism market to be in the vicinity of USD 45.5 - 72 billion, fuelled by some 14 million cross-border patients, with an average outlay of USD 3800 - 6000 per visit [7]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
