A Survey of Computational Intelligence Techniques for Wind Power Uncertainty Quantification in Smart Grids.

Abstract

The high penetration level of renewable energy is thought to be one of the basic characteristics of future smart grids. Wind power, as one of the most increasing renewable energy, has brought a large number of uncertainties into the power systems. These uncertainties would require system operators to change their traditional ways of decision-making. This article provides a comprehensive survey of computational intelligence techniques for wind power uncertainty quantification in smart grids. First, prediction intervals (PIs) are introduced as a means to quantify the uncertainties in wind power forecasts. Various PI evaluation indices, including the latest trends in comprehensive evaluation techniques, are compared. Furthermore, computational intelligence-based PI construction methods are summarized and classified into traditional methods (parametric) and direct PI construction methods (nonparametric). In the second part of this article, methods of incorporating wind power forecast uncertainties into power system decision-making processes are investigated. Three techniques, namely, stochastic models, fuzzy logic models, and robust optimization, and different power system applications using these techniques are reviewed. Finally, future research directions, such as spatiotemporal and hierarchical forecasting, deep learning-based methods, and integration of predictive uncertainty estimates into the decision-making process, are discussed. This survey can benefit the readers by providing a complete technical summary of wind power uncertainty quantification and decision-making in smart grids.