Abstract
A comprehensive survey is carried out in Kendu Bay area of Kenya to determine electrification patterns of a typical rural sub-Saharan Africa community and to determine the reasons behind such energy choices. The data from the survey is used to build a transition probability matrix (TPM) for different electrification states for Kendu Bay households. The TPM and the survey data are used to model temporal diffusion of PV systems and PV-based communal (mini/micro) grids in the area. Survey data show that majority of Kendu Bay residents shun the national grid due to high connection fees, unreliability of the system, and corruption; people who can afford-to choose small solar home systems for their basic electricity needs. Without any government policy intervention or help, simulation results show that once 100% electrification status has been achieved in Kendu Bay, only 26% of the residents will be found to be electrified through the national grid alone; the majority (38%) will be electrified through PV-based communal grids while the remaining 36% will be electrified through grid connected PV home systems (26%) or grid connected communal grids (10%).
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