A Surrogate Model for NextGen Portfolio Analysis

Abstract

The Joint Planning and Development Office has organized an Interagency Portfolio and Systems Analysis Division (IPSA) in order to provide an analytical basis to formulate and assess the capabilities of the Next Generation Air Transportation System. In the past, analysis products have been based on the use of a suite of high-fidelity modeling tools including NAS-wide simulations. The JPDO needs the capability to rapidly formulate and evaluate numerous NextGen portfolio alternatives with regard to benefits, costs, risks and policy implications. This has driven the design and development of a surrogate model (called the JPDO Screening Tool) which can be used to support decision makers and stakeholders in the evaluation and visualization of the NextGen portfolio alternatives The JPDO Screening Tool interpolates data obtained from the high-fidelity NAS-wide models and provides a broad array of data analysis and visualization capabilities in shorter timeframe than the NAS-wide models. The Screening Tool will be used to complement the high-fidelity NASwide models in IPSA. This paper describes the IPSA portfolio analysis process and provides an overview of the key current and planned capabilities of the JPDO Screening Tool.