Abstract
Electricity is a critical commodity for which the demand should be met using reliable, cost-effective, and sustainable resources. The characteristics of supply and demand should be comparatively analyzed for efficient electric power system planning. This study examines Turkey's current electricity supply and demand and their characteristics for future balance. Turkey's installed capacity and electricity consumption per capita are analyzed using historical data, and trends for future electricity demand are estimated. Electricity supply based on generation sources is reviewed, and the historical contribution of each source to total generation is shown. Statistical distribution of electricity generation by generation types and their relationships are also investigated. As the supply adequacy should be carefully reviewed for sustainability, finally, the characteristics of supply are analyzed using capacity factors, reserve margins, capacity margins, load duration curves, and peak-to-average demand ratios. It is shown that although the margins are above comfortable levels after 2017, they still need to be increased as the increased use of renewables might require extra availability. The load duration curves and peak-to-average demand ratios have shown that the density of demand is increasing, and capacity needs to be expanded and utilized carefully in the future for the reliability of the power system.Keywords: Electricity Supply-Demand, Electricity Generation Sources, Consumption Trends, Capacity Factor, Reserve Margin, Load Duration CurveJEL Classifications: Q41, O13, L94DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.11412
Highlights
Electricity is a unique commodity in the sense that its supply and demand both have stochastic characteristics, and storage is not economically viable and limited
The objectives of this study are to provide an analysis of the current state of electricity supply and demand in Turkey by examining the installed capacity, consumption, and supply based on power generation sources, and to assess the supply adequacy using capacity factors, reserve margins, capacity margins, load duration curves, and peak-to-average demand ratios
Capacity factors, reserve margins, capacity margins, and load duration curves are discussed in detail and compared with presented reference cases
Summary
Electricity is a unique commodity in the sense that its supply and demand both have stochastic characteristics, and storage is not economically viable and limited. Electricity system operators such as Independent System Operator (ISO) New England and PJM (PennsylvaniaNew Jersey-Maryland) Interconnection provide incentives to power companies to support capacity investments and encourage long-term availability of required capacity. It is possible in some markets to have a capacity market in which investments, market design, and retirements of old power plants are observed to assure that adequate resources are available to meet the load reliably (Cramton, 2017). The electricity demand has been met without any major problems, as the economic growth of the country, rising population, and electrification increased the demand, the use of generation sources needs to be analyzed to ensure that the available capacity is well utilized and the planned capacity will meet future demand
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