Abstract
In this letter an intuitive measurement based approximation for packet switched network traffic in backbone links is presented. It consists of a sum of independent non-identical Bernoulli sources. The resulting sum has a Poisson binomial distribution which can be approximated to a skewed Gaussian distribution at the asymptote. It can be further approximated to a binomial distribution for predicting congestion by estimating the number of users of the network. The results are verified using samples of traffic data from 42 academic and research institutions.
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