A suitable time-dependent conditional probability for Pacific strong earthquakes

Abstract

Statistical analyses of NOAA POES data have recently evidenced electron burst losses 1.5-3.5 h before strong earthquakes in the West Pacific and 55-59 h before strong earthquakes in East Pacific. The conditional probability of a strong seismic event after an ionospheric loss event was calculated depicting possible scenarios in both areas. It presented a geohazard risk reduction initiative that can gain valuable preparation time by adopting a probabilistic short-term warning a few hours prior, especially for tsunamis in those dangerous areas. As electron losses were detected in the same region both for West and East Pacific earthquakes, the probability of a strong event in the West Pacific would be first considered and vanish in less than 4 h. Then, after considering the seismic activity, a statistical evaluation of a disastrous event for the East Pacific coast is generated, so defining a time-dependent increase in conditional probability.